New analysis from Economists for Ukraine: economic value of U.S. aid to Ukraine is less than half the official figures

A new study shows that the actual value of U.S. military aid to Ukraine is significantly lower than official figures. Amounting to about $18.3 billion.

BERKELEY, CA, UNITED STATES, February 24, 2025 /EINPresswire.com/ -- A groundbreaking study released today by Economists for Ukraine reveals that the actual value of U.S. aid to Ukraine is significantly lower than widely reported. Contrary to the U.S. government's estimate

of more than $60 billion in military assistance, the study finds that the real value amounts to approximately $18.3 billion. The full report is available at https://econ4ua.org/aid-value.

The discrepancy stems from inflated valuations of older U.S. weapons stockpiles, the inclusion of repayable loans, and other accounting factors. Over three years of full-scale war, total U.S. aid delivered to the Ukrainian government amounts to $50.9 billion, with $32.6 billion dedicated to budget support through verified expense reimbursements and loan collateral.

“Public narratives about aid to Ukraine often overlook the distinction between appropriations and actual delivered value,” said the Economists for Ukraine leadership team. “This study provides a comprehensive, data-driven assessment that clarifies how much Ukraine is truly receiving.”

The study, conducted by a large multi-disciplinary research team, tracks every U.S. weapon system provided to Ukraine. Researchers evaluated depreciation, battlefield failure rates, and the age of equipment—much of which is decommissioned U.S. stock with limited value beyond disposal costs. The analysis categorizes U.S. aid into several groups, including loans, equipment transfers, direct funding via international institutions, and procurement grants.

Direct funding accounts for $31 billion provided through World Bank accounts managed by USAID contractors Deloitte and KPMG. These funds reimburse verified Ukrainian government expenses, including pensions and public sector salaries. Loans and collateral constitute another significant portion of the aid package. The United States allocated $1.6 billion in funds and used frozen Russian assets to collateralize approximately $25 billion in recovery loans for Ukraine and Moldova. For instance, a $156 million loan enabled Ukraine to purchase U.S.-made locomotives, supporting 800 jobs in Pennsylvania.

In terms of military equipment, the Presidential Drawdown Authority—used 55 times over the past three years—has transferred equipment valued at $31 billion according to U.S. Department of Defense accounting. However, the study estimates the actual value of the equipment received at just $12.5 billion, taking into account depreciation, age, and battlefield failure rates. Many of the transferred items are decommissioned and would otherwise incur disposal costs for the U.S. military, while restrictions on usage further decrease value. Indirect equipment transfers through allied countries, particularly Poland, account for roughly $20 billion in defense investments, but only $340 million of that directly benefited Ukraine.

Regarding procurement grants, although $12.1 billion was allocated to purchase new U.S. weapons systems and services for Ukraine, delivery schedules, restrictions, and utilization delays reduce the effective value of this aid to approximately $5.5 billion. These grants primarily serve as subsidies for the U.S. defense industry, with Ukraine receiving the benefit of new equipment and services under constrained conditions.

Altogether, the study concludes that the actual value of U.S. military aid to Ukraine totals $18.3 billion, while an additional $32.6 billion has been provided in budgetary assistance, mostly through expense reimbursement mechanisms. This brings the total value of delivered aid to $50.9 billion over three years—averaging about $17 billion per year. To put this in perspective, that figure represents just 0.25% of the 2024 U.S. federal budget, an amount roughly equivalent to the annual cost of maintaining and powering federal buildings.

The researchers also emphasize Ukraine’s commitment to financial transparency. The country’s advanced eGovernment system ensures comprehensive documentation of all disbursements, from public sector salaries to basic office supplies. Extensive audits have found no anomalies in the allocation or use of these funds.

In a broader international context, the study notes that Europe (including the EU and UK) has provided more total aid to Ukraine than the United States. Military support from Europe is roughly equivalent to that of the U.S., reflecting a commitment to Ukraine’s defense and recovery. Given the comparable sizes of the European and U.S. economies, this alignment underscores a shared responsibility in supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Economists for Ukraine is a non-partisan economic think tank under the AI for Good Foundation, a U.S. 501(c)(3) public charity dedicated to fostering economic resilience and community development. With a network of more than 400 economists from leading global institutions, Economists for Ukraine aims to provide rigorous, data-driven analysis to inform policy decisions and public understanding.